Lies, damned lies and statistics

As I do the statistics necessary to write a climate paper, I am struck by the outlier I see regularly. That is,  Leo, who is the definition of an outlier.  He's part of the long tail of a distribution.  The unfortunate fact of the matter, it's a distribution of outcomes, of recurrences - in short, of survival.  The fortunate part is he's on the good end of things, the part where statistics stop mattering so much.
It is hard, at times, to look at something or someone that you care about as the result of statistics.  But it's true - we are all parts of various distributions, whether we know it or not. Some are happy (our long-tail-dwelling friend), and some are not (the poor souls whose cancers don't respond, or whose remissions are measured in days, not years).

I am simply happy that Leo's good health, and good luck, continue, and that he continues to be part of the Long Tail of outcomes.  It's not only good for him - it's good for me, too!

2 years

I'm very late with this, and happy to be late.
2 years ago, I got a terrible phone call from L that something was wrong with Leo.  When I saw his face, I knew it was bad.
On March 29, 2012, Leo was diagnosed with Lymphoma.  He began chemotherapy on 3/31/2012.  His life expectancy was anywhere between 9-18months, with a median survival of 1 year or less.  Hence the name of this blog.